2021 Canadian federal election

Canadian general election

The 2021 Canadian federal election will take place on September 20, 2021 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Parliament of Canada.

2021 Canadian federal election

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← List of House members of the 43rd Parliament of Canada

338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
 
Trudeau G7 Cropped.jpeg
Erin O'Toole March 18, 2021 portrait (cropped).jpg
Yves-Francois Blanchet in October 2009.jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Durham Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.12% 121 seats, 34.34% 32 seats, 7.63%
Seats before 155 119 32
Seats won 160 119 32
Seat change Increase5 Steady Steady
Popular vote 5,556,629 5,747,410 1,301,615
Percentage 32.62% 33.74% 7.64%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Jagmeet Singh at the 2nd National Bike Summit - Ottawa - 2018 (42481105871) (cropped v2).jpg
Annamie Paul in Toronto Regent Park (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier in 2017 - cropped.jpg
Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Ran in Toronto Centre (defeated)[1] Ran in Beauce (lost)
Last election 24 seats, 15.98% 3 seats, 6.55% 0 seats, 1.62%
Seats before 24 2 0
Seats won 25 2 0
Seat change Increase1 Steady Steady
Popular vote 3,036,348 396,988 840,993
Percentage 17.82% 2.33% 4.94%

Canada Election 2021 Results Map.svg
Map showing seats won by each party, shaded by margin

Prime Minister before election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

The latest date of the vote was scheduled for October 16, 2023, which is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[2]

However, on August 15, 2021, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested a dissolution of parliament from Governor General Mary Simon. On September 20, Trudeau and the Liberal Party was projected to have won 155 seats, allowing them to form a minority government.[3]

Opinion pollingEdit

 
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 44th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Polling firm Last date
of polling[1]
Link CPC LPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Other[2] Margin
of error[3]
Sample
size[4]
Polling method[5] Lead
Forum Research August 15, 2021 PDF Archived 2021-08-16 at the Wayback Machine 31 28 19 7 8 5 3 ±3 pp 1,203 IVR 3
Mainstreet Research August 15, 2021 Twitter 30.1 33.1 19.1 5.9 3.9 5.6 2.2 N/A 1,331 IVR 3.0

Leadership pollsEdit

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:

October 2020 – presentEdit

Polling firm Last date

of polling

Link Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Annamie Paul Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error
[1]
Lead
Nanos Research May 14, 2021 PDF 36.3 20.8 12.6 5.2 5.3 5.2 14.6 ±3.1 pp 15.5
Innovative Research May 5, 2021 HTML 44 20 23 2 4 6 N/A 21
Ipsos April 9, 2021 HTML Archived 2021-04-16 at the Wayback Machine 42 25 17 8 7 N/A ±3.5 pp 17
Nanos Research April 2, 2021 PDF 40.1 18.9 13.2 2.3 4.1 2.9 18.5 ±3.1 pp 21.2
Nanos Research March 26, 2021 PDF 38.9 19.3 13.7 2.2 4.7 3.2 18.0 ±3.1 pp 19.6
Research Co. March 15, 2021 PDF 40 15 12 3 2 2 25 ±3.1 pp 25
Nanos Research March 12, 2021 PDF 36.7 22.0 14.4 3.7 5.6 3.4 14.2 ±3.1 pp 14.7
Nanos Research February 26, 2021 PDF 34.0 24.5 15.2 4.2 4.6 4.1 14.2 ±3.1 pp 9.5
Nanos Research February 5, 2021 PDF 38.1 24.7 13.5 5.4 4.6 4.1 9.6 ±3.1 pp 13.4
Nanos Research January 15, 2021 PDF 38.5 23.9 13.3 4.6 4.2 3.2 12.3 ±3.1 pp 14.6
Nanos Research January 1, 2021 PDF[permanent dead link] 39.3 20.3 13.1 3.2 3.9 2.4 17.7 ±3.1 pp 19.0
Nanos Research December 18, 2020 PDF Archived 2021-01-13 at the Wayback Machine 38.2 21.1 13.2 3.6 2.2 2.2 19.6 ±3.1 pp 17.1
Research Co. December 14, 2020 PDF 39 22 13 3 2 2 ±3.1 pp 17
Nanos Research December 11, 2020 PDF Archived 2021-01-14 at the Wayback Machine 37.5 19.7 13.5 3.9 3.2 2.3 19.9 ±3.1 pp 17.8
Nanos Research November 20, 2020 PDF Archived 2021-01-14 at the Wayback Machine 38.5 20.3 14.5 3.4 1.8 2.0 19.5 ±3.1 pp 18.2
Nanos Research October 30, 2020 PDF[permanent dead link] 39.0 20.1 12.7 2.8 2.5 1.9 21.0 ±3.1 pp 18.9
Nanos Research October 23, 2020 PDF[permanent dead link] 37.7 21.6 12.6 2.9 2.7 2.1 20.5 ±3.1 pp 16.1
Nanos Research October 16, 2020 PDF Archived 2020-10-27 at the Wayback Machine 38.5 23.0 11.1 1.9 2.9 2.5 20.1 ±3.1 pp 15.0
Nanos Research October 9, 2020 PDF[permanent dead link] 37.1 22.5 11.6 2.8 4.0 2.1 19.7 ±3.1 pp 14.6

August 2020 – October 2020Edit

Polling firm Last date

of polling

Link Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error
[1]
Lead
Nanos Research September 25, 2020 PDF[permanent dead link] 35.6 22.8 13.2 3.1 3.3 2.1 19.9 ±3.1 pp 12.8
Nanos Research September 4, 2020 PDF[permanent dead link] 34.4 20.2 15.2 4.2 4.0 1.5 20.5 ±3.1 pp 14.2

NotesEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. Reynolds, Christopher (February 11, 2021). "Green Leader Annamie Paul to run in Toronto Centre, setting stage for rematch". CBC News. Archived from the original on February 12, 2021. Retrieved February 12, 2021.
  2. "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
  3. Connolly, Amanda (20 September 2021). "Liberals projected to form minority government - National | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 20 September 2021.