2021 Canadian federal election

2021 Canadian federal election
← List of House members of the 43rd Parliament of Canada
338 seats in the House of Commons; 170 seats needed for a majority
	Opinion polls
	Map showing seats won by each party, shaded by margin
Prime Minister before election; Justin Trudeau; Liberal	Prime Minister after election ; Justin Trudeau; Liberal

The 2021 Canadian federal election took place on September 20, 2021 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Parliament of Canada.

The latest date of the vote was scheduled for October 16, 2023, which is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.^[3]

However, on August 15, 2021, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested a dissolution of parliament from Governor General Mary Simon. On September 20, Trudeau and the Liberal Party was projected to have won 155 seats, allowing them to form a minority government.^[4]

Opinion polling

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 44th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Polling firm	Last date of polling^[1]	Link	CPC	LPC	NDP	BQ	GPC	PPC	Other^[2]	Margin of error^[3]	Sample size^[4]	Polling method^[5]	Lead
Polling firm	Last date of polling^[1]	Link							Other^[2]	Margin of error^[3]	Sample size^[4]	Polling method^[5]	Lead
Forum Research	August 15, 2021	PDF Archived 2021-08-16 at the Wayback Machine	31	28	19	7	8	5	3	±3 pp	1,203	IVR	3
Mainstreet Research	August 15, 2021	Twitter	30.1	33.1	19.1	5.9	3.9	5.6	2.2	—	1,331	IVR	3.0

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:

October 2020 – present

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	Justin Trudeau	Erin O'Toole	Jagmeet Singh	Yves-François Blanchet	Annamie Paul	Maxime Bernier	Unsure	Margin of error^[1]	Lead
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link							Unsure	Margin of error^[1]	Lead
Nanos Research	May 14, 2021	PDF	36.3	20.8	12.6	5.2	5.3	5.2	14.6	±3.1 pp	15.5
Innovative Research	May 5, 2021	HTML	44	20	23	2	4	6		—	21
Ipsos	April 9, 2021	HTML Archived 2021-04-16 at the Wayback Machine	42	25	17	8	7	—		±3.5 pp	17
Nanos Research	April 2, 2021	PDF	40.1	18.9	13.2	2.3	4.1	2.9	18.5	±3.1 pp	21.2
Nanos Research	March 26, 2021	PDF	38.9	19.3	13.7	2.2	4.7	3.2	18.0	±3.1 pp	19.6
Research Co.	March 15, 2021	PDF	40	15	12	3	2	2	25	±3.1 pp	25
Nanos Research	March 12, 2021	PDF	36.7	22.0	14.4	3.7	5.6	3.4	14.2	±3.1 pp	14.7
Nanos Research	February 26, 2021	PDF	34.0	24.5	15.2	4.2	4.6	4.1	14.2	±3.1 pp	9.5
Nanos Research	February 5, 2021	PDF	38.1	24.7	13.5	5.4	4.6	4.1	9.6	±3.1 pp	13.4
Nanos Research	January 15, 2021	PDF	38.5	23.9	13.3	4.6	4.2	3.2	12.3	±3.1 pp	14.6
Nanos Research	January 1, 2021	PDF^{[permanent dead link]}	39.3	20.3	13.1	3.2	3.9	2.4	17.7	±3.1 pp	19.0
Nanos Research	December 18, 2020	PDF Archived 2021-01-13 at the Wayback Machine	38.2	21.1	13.2	3.6	2.2	2.2	19.6	±3.1 pp	17.1
Research Co.	December 14, 2020	PDF	39	22	13	3	2	2		±3.1 pp	17
Nanos Research	December 11, 2020	PDF Archived 2021-01-14 at the Wayback Machine	37.5	19.7	13.5	3.9	3.2	2.3	19.9	±3.1 pp	17.8
Nanos Research	November 20, 2020	PDF Archived 2021-01-14 at the Wayback Machine	38.5	20.3	14.5	3.4	1.8	2.0	19.5	±3.1 pp	18.2
Nanos Research	October 30, 2020	PDF^{[permanent dead link]}	39.0	20.1	12.7	2.8	2.5	1.9	21.0	±3.1 pp	18.9
Nanos Research	October 23, 2020	PDF^{[permanent dead link]}	37.7	21.6	12.6	2.9	2.7	2.1	20.5	±3.1 pp	16.1
Nanos Research	October 16, 2020	PDF Archived 2020-10-27 at the Wayback Machine	38.5	23.0	11.1	1.9	2.9	2.5	20.1	±3.1 pp	15.0
Nanos Research	October 9, 2020	PDF^{[permanent dead link]}	37.1	22.5	11.6	2.8	4.0	2.1	19.7	±3.1 pp	14.6

August 2020 – October 2020

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	Justin Trudeau	Erin O'Toole	Jagmeet Singh	Yves-François Blanchet	Elizabeth May	Maxime Bernier	Unsure	Margin of error^[1]	Lead
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link							Unsure	Margin of error^[1]	Lead
Nanos Research	September 25, 2020	PDF^{[permanent dead link]}	35.6	22.8	13.2	3.1	3.3	2.1	19.9	±3.1 pp	12.8
Nanos Research	September 4, 2020	PDF^{[permanent dead link]}	34.4	20.2	15.2	4.2	4.0	1.5	20.5	±3.1 pp	14.2

Notes

References

↑ ^1.0 ^1.1 ^1.2 ^1.3 ^1.4 ^1.5 Jeudy, Lucy (October 6, 2021). "Canadian federal election results in Québec 2021". Statista.com. Retrieved October 11, 2022.
↑ Reynolds, Christopher (February 11, 2021). "Green Leader Annamie Paul to run in Toronto Centre, setting stage for rematch". CBC News. Archived from the original on February 12, 2021. Retrieved February 12, 2021.
↑ "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on August 5, 2011. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
↑ Connolly, Amanda (20 September 2021). "Liberals projected to form minority government - National | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 20 September 2021.

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[Statista-1] 1.0 ^1.1 ^1.2 ^1.3 ^1.4 ^1.5 Jeudy, Lucy (October 6, 2021). "Canadian federal election results in Québec 2021". Statista.com. Retrieved October 11, 2022.

[2] Reynolds, Christopher (February 11, 2021). "Green Leader Annamie Paul to run in Toronto Centre, setting stage for rematch". CBC News. Archived from the original on February 12, 2021. Retrieved February 12, 2021.

[C16-3] "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on August 5, 2011. Retrieved July 29, 2011.

[4] Connolly, Amanda (20 September 2021). "Liberals projected to form minority government - National | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 20 September 2021.

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