Doomsday Clock

The Doomsday Clock is a symbol that represents the likely possibility of human-caused threat to humanity and possible extinction or non-reversable damage. Kept going since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago in Chicago, Illinois, United States.^[1] The clock is a metaphor for threats to humanity.^[2]

The clock's first setting in 1953 (7 minutes to midnight)

The clock's setting in 1991 (17 minutes to midnight), the farthest its been to midnight

The clock's current setting since 2020 (100 seconds until midnight), the nearest its been to midnight

How the clock would look like when its midnight meaning the possible end of humanity

Background

The clock shows how close the world is to a global catastrophe as a number of minutes or seconds to midnight, changed in January of each year. When the clock hits midnight, it means that a global event that would harm humanity is near.^[3]

The main reasons why the clock would change its times are nuclear risk and climate change.^[4]

On January 23, 2020, the Clock was moved further, to 100 seconds (1 minute 40 seconds) before midnight, meaning that the Clock's status today is the closest to midnight since the Clock's start in 1947. In 2021 and 2022, the clock's time was unchanged, staying at 100 seconds before midnight.

Timeline

Doomsday Clock graph, 1947–2020. The lower points on the graph show a higher probability of a human-made global disaster, and the higher points show a lower chance of it happening.

Timeline of the Doomsday Clock^[2]
Year	Minutes to midnight	Time (24-h)	Change (minutes)	Reason
1947	7	23:53	—	The first setting of the Doomsday Clock.
1949	3	23:57	−4	The Soviet Union tests its first atomic bomb, the RDS-1, officially starting the nuclear arms race.
1953	2	23:58	−1	The United States tests its first thermonuclear weapon in November 1952 with the Soviets doing a similar test. This was the clock's closest approach to midnight (tied in 2018) until 2020.
1960	7	23:53	+5	With scientists agreeing that a nuclear war would be fatal to humanity, both the United States and Soviet Union work to avoid a nuclear war
1963	12	23:48	+5	The United States and the Soviet Union sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty, limiting atmospheric nuclear testing.
1968	7	23:53	−5	The involvement of the United States in the Vietnam War intensifies, the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 takes place, and the Six-Day War occurs in 1967. France and China begin nuclear testing
1969	10	23:50	+3	Every nation in the world, except for India, Israel, and Pakistan, signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
1972	12	23:48	+2	The United States and the Soviet Union sign the first Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty.
1974	9	23:51	−3	India tests a nuclear device, and SALT II talks stop. Both the United States and the Soviet Union modernize multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).
1980	7	23:53	−2	Talks between American and Soviet leaders stop as the Soviet–Afghan War begins. As a result of the war, the U.S. Senate does not ratify the SALT II agreement.
1981	4	23:56	−3	The Clock is fixed in early 1981.^[5] The Soviet war in Afghanistan toughens the U.S.' nuclear stance. U.S. President Jimmy Carter boycotts the United States from the 1980 Summer Olympic Games in Moscow. The Carter administration thinks about ways in which the United States could win a nuclear war. Ronald Reagan becomes President of the United States, stoping future arms talks with the Soviet Union, and argues that the only way to end the Cold War is to win it. Events such as the Iran hostage crisis, the Iran–Iraq War, China's atmospheric nuclear warhead test, the declaration of martial law in Poland, apartheid in South Africa, and human rights abuses across the world causes the clock to move back.^[6]
1984	3	23:57	−1	Tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union grow, with the ongoing Soviet–Afghan War intensifying the Cold War.^[5] Ronald Reagan pushes to win the Cold War by increasing the arms race between the superpowers. The Soviet Union and its allies (except Romania) boycott the 1984 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.
1988	6	23:54	+3	In December 1987, the Clock is moved back three minutes as the United States and the Soviet Union sign the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, to stopping intermediate-range nuclear missiles, and their relations improve.^[7]
1990	10	23:50	+4	The fall of the Berlin Wall and the Iron Curtain, along with the reunification of Germany, mean that the Cold War is close to its end.
1991	17	23:43	+7	The United States and Soviet Union sign the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), and the Soviet Union dissolves on December 26. This is the farthest from midnight the Clock has been since its creation.
1995	14	23:46	−3	Global military spending continues at Cold War levels during fears of a post-Soviet nuclear buildup.
1998	9	23:51	−5	Both India (Pokhran-II) and Pakistan (Chagai-I) test nuclear weapons.
2002	7	23:53	−2	Little progress on global nuclear disarmament. United States rejects a series of arms control treaties and announces its plans to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
2007	5	23:55	−2	North Korea tests a nuclear weapon in October 2006,^[8] Iran's nuclear ambitions, a renewed American focus on the military utility of nuclear weapons, the failure to create secure nuclear materials, and the continued presence of some 26,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia.^[9] This is the first time climate change was added as a possible threat to mankind.^[10]
2010	6	23:54	+1	Worldwide efforts to reduce nuclear weapons and limit effect of climate change.^[2] New START agreement is ratified by both the United States and Russia, and more negotiations for reductions in the American and Russian nuclear weapons are already planned.
2012	5	23:55	−1	Lack of global political action to address global climate change, nuclear weapons stockpiles, the potential for regional nuclear conflict, and nuclear power safety.^[11]
2015	3	23:57	−2	Concerns about a lack of global political action to stop global climate change, the modernization of nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia, and the problem of nuclear waste.^[12]
2017	2 1⁄2	23:57:30	−1⁄2 (−30 s)	United States President Donald Trump's comments over nuclear weapons, the threat of a new arms race between the U.S. and Russia, and not believing in the effects of climate change by the Trump administration.^[13]^[14]^[15]^[16]^[3]
2018	2	23:58	−1⁄2 (−30 s)	The failure of world leaders to deal with threats of nuclear war and climate change. This is the clock's second closest approach to midnight, matching that of 1953.^[17] In 2019, the Bulletin reused the "two minutes to midnight" time, because of continuing climate change and Trump administration's not support U.S. efforts to lead the world toward decarbonization; U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty; U.S. and Russian nuclear modernization efforts; information warfare threats and other dangers from "disruptive technologies" such as synthetic biology, artificial intelligence, and cyberwarfare.^[18]
2020	1 2⁄3 (100 seconds)	23:58:20	−1⁄3 (−20 s)	Failure of world leaders to deal with the increased threats of nuclear war, such as the end of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) between the United States and Russia as well as increased tensions between the US and Iran, along with the ignoring climate change. It is the first time the clock uses seconds instead of minutes, instead of minutes; this is the clock's closest approach to midnight, passing that of 1953 and 2018.^[19] The Bulletin said that the current issues are "the most dangerous situation that humanity has ever faced." In 2021 and 2022, the Bulletin reused the "100 seconds to midnight" time setting.^[20]
2023	90 seconds	23:58:30	10 s	Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the increased risk of nuclear escalation^[21]